These have been selling on Ebay at or around ratio pricing: $25 for the regular Turner variant and $75 for the sketch variant. Given the cover price of CW1 was $4, the situation is even more rediculous that described. If a retailer can sell the variants for $75 and $25x3 (=$150) respectively, their cost for the regular cover issues is zero (cost $75x2=$150). Actually, given that most retailers have a discount in excess of 50%, they have already made a profit just selling the variants.

This whole retailer intentive cover thing is really going to come home to roost in the next couple of years. It hurts the industry in a two ways, by encouraging retailers to order more than they can possibly sell, but more importantly by encouraging the "valuable collectible" mentality that almost crushed comics only a decade ago.
It isn't just marvel either, I see Wildstrom is getting into the 2-tier incentive cover thing with thier Wetworks and Wildcats launches.

Incentive variants may yield publishers and retailers (and god knows Diamond as well) a few extra bucks in the short term, but they are going to drive people away from comics in the long term, when they realize that the Turner sketch cover they happily shelled out $75 for as an "investment" (I can't imagine anyone buys at $180 from Wizard, *shudder*) is going for $20 next year or the year after on Ebay. Yep, they were scammed. Just like they were with the death of superman and all those crappy holofoil covers. Damn, it makes me so angry (and I wasn't even reading comics in the 90's).

I also think David is right in that many retailers are using these variants to reward longtime or bulk customers. Which IMHO makes a lot of sense, as these people will be around whether or not there's a speculators market. Keeping them happy (and enabling retailers to keep them happy) ought to be in everyone's interest. Based on that, one would expect or hope that Marvel determines the ratio of variants based on the ratio of casual to hardcore consumers in the average comic store. Unfortunately either 1/20 or 1/75 has to be "wrong" from that POV and I'm not sure any of them is right.

It's a variation of the "multiple-cover" syndrome of the 90's, but with a twist. The multiple covers are only offered to folks who are willing to pay a premium for them, meaning that the speculator market for them can be much smaller, AND the books look more valuable right out of the gate for those speculators who are buying them.

Is this sustainable? I don't know. I suppose it depends partly on how many of these variants there are out in the market, what kind of collectors are buying them, and what THEIR expectations of turnaround are. If there are truly 90's-style speculators "investing" in these, then the bottom will probably fall out when people go to sell them a few years from now and realize that they aren't going to get nearly the amount of money they thought they'd get for the variant Civil War #1 comic. If these are just collectors, who want to own it just to own it and aren't looking at it as a lottery ticket, they may be able to milk the market for a longer time, and let it down gently when the collectors slow down on their purchases.

As for who buys the variants?

Good question. I have no idea.

But yes, I do agree that this is basically Marvel placing the burden upon the retailers, but it is an optional one, at least. The retailers do not HAVE to order enough for the variants.

The real question is this: who's buying these variant covers (which are frequently inferior to the regular cover art, at least IMO) at $180 a pop? If you generously estimate the combined DC/Marvel market at 500,000, that would be a pretty high percentage who are willing to pay a whopping premium for a relatively minor variation. But I guess comics attract these obsessive collector types.